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Let’s dispel a
couple of myths about card counting right away. Card
counters do not memorize every card they have seen dealt out
of a deck or shoe. Card counting also does not allow a
player to magically know what card will be dealt out the
deck or shoe next. If you see some guy take a hit on his
hard nineteen against a dealers 10 and he receives a two for
a total of 21, it doesn't mean that he is an expert card
counter. It means he is either a drunk, a fool, or he
managed to see the dealers hole card; it doesn't mean he is
a card counter, as a card counter would never do such a
reckless thing. Yes, if the cards were dealt down to the
last few in the deck, a good card counter would probably
know what card is likely to come next. But in the real world
of casino blackjack you will never be involved in a game
where the cards are dealt down to the last remaining cards.
The reason for this is simple; it would give a huge
advantage to the card counter and obviously any casino you
play in will take measures to insure that this type of
situation won't occur.
But that doesn't mean that
card counting can't be done, or that it can't be very useful
or profitable to a blackjack player.
We will be discussing two
methods of card counting on this page. The first one is a
true card counting system, but it takes work to master it.
The second one is what is called 'casual' card counting and
it is something which is pretty easy to do. But its
important to read this entire section to understand what
card counting is all about and how to use it to your
advantage.
The basic premise of card
counting is that a deck or shoe that is 'rich' in face cards
and aces (IE: a high percentage of these cards) favors the
player over the dealer. This is true for several reasons.
A player receiving a
'natural', an ace and a ten-point card, is paid 3-2 on his
original bet, whereas the dealer only wins the wager if he
or she has blackjack.
If the dealer receives a poor
hand as the original two cards (IE: a point count of 12 to
16), they must draw another card and they are more likely to
bust if the deck or shoe is rich in face cards. Remember,
you don't have to hit these hands if you don't want to; the
dealer however must.
With a two card hand totaling
9, 10, 11, the dealer can't double in a a high card rich
deck, but you can.
With an abundance of face
cards there will be more blackjacks and pat hands (IE:
17-21) dealt.
As in basic strategy computer
simulations, it has been mathematically proven that a deck
or shoe rich in face cards is favorable to the player. A
deck or shoe rich in low cards however, will always favor
the dealer.
On the other hand, when the
number of low value cards far outnumber the face cards and
aces, a blackjack player can choose to modify his or her
split and double down decisions, since the chances of
winning these hands are reduced when a low card is dealt to
the player after a split or double down.
To sum it up, card counters
use a betting system, or strategy, of betting their smallest
wagers when the deck or shoe is rich in low points cards,
since their chances of winning in this case are reduced.
When the deck or shoe is rich in high cards the card counter
will increase their original bet since their chances of
winning are now increased.
So how does a blackjack
player actually count cards? Well, there are many different
techniques that have been researched and invented to keep
track of the cards played from a deck or a shoe. Some of
these techniques are difficult to master, while some are
easy to learn and master. Here again, computer simulations
of the many different methods of card counting have shown
that some of the easiest card counting systems to learn are
just as effective as the more traditional and complicated
methods are.
Hi-Low System
One of the most popular card
counting systems currently in use is the point count system,
also known as Hi-Low. This system is based on assigning a
point value of +1, 0, or -1 to every card dealt to all
players on the table, including the dealer. Each card is
assigned its own specific point value. Aces and 10-point
cards are assigned a value of -1. Cards 7, 8, 9 each count
as 0. Cards 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 each count as +1.
As the cards are dealt, the
player mentally keeps a running count of the cards exposed,
and makes wagering decisions based on the current count
total.
The higher the plus count,
IE: the higher percentage of ten-point cards and aces
remaining to be dealt, means that the advantage is to player
and he/she should increase their wager.
If the running count is
around zero, the deck or shoe is neutral and neither the
player nor the dealer has an advantage.
The higher the minus count,
the greater disadvantage is to the player, as a higher than
normal number of 'stiff cards remain to be dealt. In this
case a player should be making their minimum wager or leave
the table.
As the dealing of the cards
progresses, the credibility of the count becomes more
accurate, and the size of the player's wager can be
increased or decreased with a better probability of winning
when the deck or shoe is rich in in face cards and aces, and
betting and losing less when the deck is rich in 'stiff'
cards.
It is important to note that
a players decision process, when to hit, stand, double down,
etc. is still based on basic strategy. Remember, you MUST
learn basic strategy. However, alterations in basic strategy
play is sometimes recommended based on the current card
count. For example, if the running count is +2 or greater
and you have a hard 16 against a dealers up card of ten, you
should stand, which is a direct violation of basic strategy.
But considering that the deck or shoe is rich in face cards
you are more likely to bust in this situation, thus you
ignore basic strategy and stand. Another example is to
always take insurance when the count is +3 or greater. For
the most part however, you should stick with basic strategy
and use the card count as an indication of when to increase
or decrease the amount of your bet, as that is the whole
strategy behind card counting.
Generally speaking, if the
point count is +2 or greater in a single deck game you
should increase your initial bet.
In a multiple deck game your
wager should be increased when the 'TRUE COUNT' is +2 or
more. What's the difference between a running count in a
single deck game versus the true count in a multiple deck
game? The true count in a multiple deck game is based on the
actual number of decks left to be played. For example, in a
single deck game if the first six cards dealt are small
cards you have a running count total of +6, which is a nice
advantage to the player. If the first six cards dealt in a
multiple deck game are all small cards you also have a
running count of +6. However, this doesn't add up to the
same advantage because you have several decks in the shoe
left to be dealt, therefore you must use a true count as
your basis of increasing your wager. If you're at a six-deck
game, and the first six cards are small ones, the count per
remaining deck (the true count) is actually just a bit over
1, since there is just a bit less than 6 decks remaining to
be played.
To determine the true count,
divide the 'running' count by the number of decks remaining
to be played. What this means is the number of decks left,
whether they'll actually be played or not. In a six-deck
game for example, a deck or more may be cut off by the
dealer after the shuffle, but that means nothing when
computing true count. Now figuring out the actual number of
decks remaining isn't as difficult as you might think.
Simply observe how many cards are in the discard tray. Using
a six-deck game for an example, if you see about 2 decks in
the discard tray you then have four decks left to be played.
So at this point a running count of +8 translates into a
true count of 2 because there are four decks left in the
shoe. IE: Running count of 8 is divided by number of decks
remaining, in this case 4, and the result is 2. 8 divided by
4 = 2. The dealer may shuffle before all four of those
remaining decks have been played, but for true count
conversion that doesn't matter.
So that's how you count
cards. Yes, it takes a bit of practice and concentration and
that may take away some of the enjoyment of playing the
game. However, you may also choose to use a 'casual' card
counting system which is much easier to master.
Casual Card Counting
Casual card counting is just
that, casual. It doesn't take a lot of concentration or
mathematical calculations, and demands little use of your
memory.
You already know that a deck
rich in face cards is an advantage to the player. All you
need to do is casually observe the flow of cards coming out
of a deck or shoe. For example, if you are playing a
multiple deck shoe and after a few hands you observe that
very few face cards or aces were played you have a situation
where the next hand will probably be good for the player.
Thus, you increase your bet.
The key to this system is to
look for extremes. The absence or predominance of exposed
high cards is easily noticeable by casual observation. Often
you will play several hands where the mix of face cards and
low value cards are relatively even. But when you see a
noticeable absence of high value cards you should increase
your next wager.
Casual card counting is
something you should always do unless you are following a
strict card counting system such as the Hi-Low system. It
won't guarantee winners for you on every hand, but it will
give you a slight advantage.
Cluster Counting
Another method for
determining the probablity of a higher than normal
percentage of high point cards being dealt (which is an edge
to the player) is known as cluster counting, or shuffle
tracking.
This method is based on the
observation that cards tend to "cluster" in certain parts of
a multi deck shoe, and that the shuffling of the cards at
the conclusion of a shoe can be tracked by a player so that
he can determine which portions of the next shoe will be
high in player friendly cards. A breakdown of this method
follows.
When playing a new shoe make
note of the flow of cards while mentally dividing the shoe
into sections equal to one deck.
Now you need to observe which
portions of each section that are high in Aces and ten-point
cards.
Rate each section as being
rich or poor in high cards and then make note of how the
cards are placed in the discard box.
At the end of each shoe,
watch how the dealer shuffles the new shoe. Keep track of
where the clusters of high cards are located, and where they
will surface in the dealing of the next shoe.
When playing this next shoe,
increase your wager when you reach those sections of the
shoe that are rich in high point cards, and decrease your
wager when the deck is rich in low point cards.
Unfortunately, shuffle
tracking is very hard to master, and casinos have taken
measures to defeat its effectiveness. Some counter measures
used by casinos include using two discard racks, changing
the pattern of the shuffle, and by using automated shuffling
machines. You may still run across blackjack tables where
this method can be used, and if you are willing to practice
and learn the technique, it can be effective.
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